The 4Cast Blog

In-Depth Research: Hungary Preview  - NBH to hold its policy rate at 0.90% in January (0100-KPJB-C01)
23 Jan 15:51  - By:  Juri Kren
  • We see the Monetary Council maintaining the current policy stance at the January 24 meeting, holding the policy rate at 0.90% and keeping the interest rate corridor intact.
  • Furthermore, we expect central bank to continue to utilise its unconventional policy toolkit to maintain an easing stance.
  • Despite the acceleration in inflation, GDP growth remains slow. We expect growth to tick up to only 2.1% y/y this year from 2.0% y/y in 2016.
US Data and Fed Outlook in the Week Ahead: Jan 23 - 27 (CIAC9901)
19 Jan 15:37  - By:  David Sloan
  • Most of the US weekly calendar is quiet, with Fed speakers seen quiet ahead of the Feb 1 rates decision, though the advance estimate of Q4 GDP on Friday will be closely watched. 
In-Depth Research: Turkey Preview  - CBT to hike both the repo rate and the O/N lending rate by 50bps in January (0100-KFJJ-C01)
18 Jan 15:21  - By:  Juri Kren
  • At the January 24 CBT meeting we see the central bank hiking both the repo rate and the O/N lending rate by 50bps to 8.50% and 9.00%, respectively while leaving the O/N borrowing rate unchanged at 7.25% and re-affirming its flexibility to act.
Brazil: Weak growth and inflation downward trend warrant frontloading of monetary easing (0100-KFQN-C01)
17 Jan 16:10  - By:  Pedro Tuesta
  •  BCB confirms that it a shift to focus on stimulating growth will not jeopardize inflation target in the current conditions, allowing the frontload of monetary easing. Data suggests there is no risk in keeping the strategy in the next meetings. Only foreseeable risks are political in the domestic front (read reforms) and global financial uncertainty associated to US policies (read BRL).
UK Preview: due 17th January - CPI inflation seen at 1.4% y/y in Dec (0100-KNGS-C01)
16 Jan 15:37  - By:  Thomas Bloomfield
  • We expect CPI to rise by 0.3%m/m, lifting the y/y rate to 1.4%y/y from 1.2%y/y in November. The increase is likely to be driven by a rise in the transport component, furniture, food & non-alc. beverages. 
In-Depth Research: Mexico  - Banxico Ammunition: The short and the long of it (0100-KBCD-C01)
11 Jan 16:11  - By:  Pedro Tuesta
Banxico has limited resources to intervene and may choose its objectives, namely compensate for illiquid markets or try to establish a cap for MXN depreciation. We believe that given its limited resources, no more than US$40mn in extreme circumstances, Banxico should aim only to compensate illiquid moments and therefore we should see further MXN depreciation.
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