The 4Cast Blog

Implications of US Feb Michigan CSI (0100-LDQW-C01)
10 Feb 16:07  - By:  David Sloan
  • The Michigan CSI in Feb's preliminary has slipped to 95.7 from 98.5, a correction from the recent gain which saw Jan reach the highest level since Jan 2004.
Riksbank set to stay on hold in February following positive inflation data (0100-LHSQ-C01)
09 Feb 15:27  - By:  Ariane Curtis
We expect the Riksbank to keep the repo rate at -0.50% at their February 15 policy announcement. The rate path should remain broadly unchanged, indicating a rate hike in 2018 as the most likely next move.
In-Depth Research: Indonesia  - Q4 GDP growth slows, although FY growth tops 5%, just about! (0100-KXSS-C01)
06 Feb 16:07  - By:  Charu Chanana
  • Q4 GDP growth came in at 4.94% y/y, weaker than Q3's 5.01% y/y, but in-line with our expectations, on the back of weak consumption demand even as public spending picked up.
  • Overall 2016 growth of 5.02% was only slightly higher than 4.88% (revised) growth seen in 2015, which was the slowest since 2009.
US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing - charts and table (0100-KXBN-C01)
03 Feb 15:28  - By:  David Sloan
Jan ISM manufacturing at 56.0 is stronger than expected and up from 54.5 in Dec to the highest since Nov 2014, consistent with the majority of regional surveys, weak Chicago PMI proving misleading
US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing - charts and table (0100-KXBN-C01)
03 Feb 15:28  - By:  David Sloan
Jan ISM manufacturing at 56.0 is stronger than expected and up from 54.5 in Dec to the highest since Nov 2014, consistent with the majority of regional surveys, weak Chicago PMI proving misleading
In-Depth Research: Poland Preview  - Base rate seen held at 1.50% in February (0100-KPJJ-C01)
01 Feb 14:28  - By:  Juri Kren
  • We expect the Polish reference rate to be held at 1.50% at the NBP's February 7-8 meeting.
  • Inflation is accelerating faster than we'd been expecting but underlying inflation pressures remain low, amid negative output gap.
pc pc pc pc