Jan's non-farm payroll rise of 227k is stronger than
expected and even firmer at 237k private, which gets close to the impressive
ADP gain seen on Wednesday. While the signals on job growth are strong
the inflationary signals are not, with average hourly earnings up only 0.1% and
unemployment up 0.1% to 4.8%.”
Gold continued to hold the 50-day MA and rallied as
expected. We switched from the Feb to the Apr contract on 31 Jan, but the result
was the same; more rally action expected for the week. Our 1223/36 rally target
zone was tested on 02 Feb.
tested our S/T bear target zone at 21.09/00 on the week and around the 50-day
MA at 20.894 it could become a bit more 'tricky' now. We will now move to
temporary neutral and wait to see if the mkt can close below the 50-day MA
today before attempting any new bear view to 20.50 and lower. If the 50-day MA
holds, there could be short covering to 21.24.
USD/CLP extended through our main MA target zone at
663.25/40 a bit sooner than expected and managed to test the 200-day MA at
668.43 amid the week’s very strong move upside.
The 2.9% increase in
Q3 GDP was a little above published consensus forecasts but probably close to
where expectations had moved after the surprise fall in Sep's trade deficit.
The broad message of the data was in line with what we had expected, the 2.9%
rise in GDP and the 1.4% rise in final sales to domestic buyers are both 0.1%
below our calls.
In September 2015 Barclays and Roubini Global
Economics (now 4CAST-RGE) collaborated to launch the Roubini Barclays Country
Insights™ Indices, a family of tradable equity indices that aim to pick
fundamentally strong countries. One year later four of the indices
have outperformed their market benchmarks, with the fifth coming in par.