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Recent Good Call - US Q3 GDP

By:  David Sloan Posted:  28 Oct 14:54

US 1st Estimate Q3 GDP - charts and table (CKUC9801)

 

Comment: 

“Q3 US GDP should pick up from 3 weak quarters to increase by 3.0%. This would be the strongest since Q3 2014…… Net exports look set to add 1.2% to GDP….. Inventories should also be a positive, correcting from a very weak Q2….. Final sales to domestic buyers (GDP less inventories and net exports) will increase by a modest 1.5%, maintaining a slowing trend.”

 

Result:

“The 2.9% increase in Q3 GDP was a little above published consensus forecasts but probably close to where expectations had moved after the surprise fall in Sep's trade deficit. The broad message of the data was in line with what we had expected, the 2.9% rise in GDP and the 1.4% rise in final sales to domestic buyers are both 0.1% below our calls.”

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