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Recent Good Call - Non-Farm Payrolls

By:  David Sloan Posted:  03 Feb 15:26

Preview: due 3 Feb - US Jan Employment [nonfarm payrolls] [Repeat] (0100-KVMH-C01)

 

Comment:

We expect Jan's non-farm payroll to rise by 210k versus 156k in Dec, with private payrolls at 200k versus 144k in Dec. The signals from initial claims are more positive than they were in Dec when the 4 week average saw a modest increase. Strength in ADP data adds to the message coming from initial claims……..Average hourly earnings should rise by 0.2%, which is roughly where trend is. The last 3 months have seen two 0.4% increases with a -0.1% in between, so risk may be on the low side of trend in Jan, though scheduled historic revisions add to uncertainty here too.

 

Result:

Jan's non-farm payroll rise of 227k is stronger than expected and even firmer at 237k private, which gets close to the impressive ADP gain seen on Wednesday.  While the signals on job growth are strong the inflationary signals are not, with average hourly earnings up only 0.1% and unemployment up 0.1% to 4.8%

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